What does it take to beat the NBA odds? It definitely helps to have great players, but that’s not enough. Just look at the Boston Celtics at 30-16 SU and a wholly unsatisfying 19-26-1 ATS. Clearly there are larger forces at work here. Let’s look at the Top 5 ATS teams to see what makes them tick (one common factor: small markets), and what we can expect from them in the second half of the season.

1. Atlanta Hawks (30-16 SU and ATS)b

Key players: Josh Smith (21.57 PER), Joe Johnson (19.59 PER)
Injuries: None

Atlanta is shredding NBA lines for the third year in a row, roughly coinciding with the resignation of GM Billy Knight in 2008. Knight had several opportunities to draft high, and although he whiffed on taking Chris Paul (26.44 PER) in 2005, Knight scored with Smith in 2004 and Al Horford (18.93 PER) in 2007. Trades for Johnson and Mike Bibby (12.93 PER) also proved successful from a talent standpoint. New GM Rick Sund’s astute trade for Jamal Crawford (18.79 PER) gives the Hawks a strong core of above-average players without the ATS-draining spotlight on one notable superstar. This team should keep making money until people start paying attention at the national level.

2. Utah Jazz (29-18 SU, 29-17-2 ATS)

Key players: Deron Williams (20.64 PER), Carlos Boozer (20.50 PER)
Injuries: Carlos Boozer (calf, day-to-day), Ronnie Brewer (ribs, day-to-day)

Also toiling away from the media glare, the Jazz have built something of an empire under 22-year coach Jerry Sloan. He likes players with character, and GM Kevin O’Connor has followed the blueprint by drafting for personality as well as talent. Among his picks: Williams, Brewer (13.59 PER) and second-round steal Paul Millsap (16.22 PER), who is starting for Boozer in his absence. Millsap dumped 32 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists on the Sacramento Kings this past Friday, and he added 25 more points in Monday’s victory over the Dallas Mavericks. Millsap’s anonymity just makes Utah that much stronger at the pay window.

3. Milwaukee Bucks (21-25 SU, 28-18 ATS)

Key players: Andrew Bogut (19.99 PER), Brandon Jennings (15.86 PER)
Injuries: Michael Redd (knee, out for season)

Here’s a case where a team is definitely better off without its star player. Redd (12.23 PER) came back from last year’s knee surgery and played the worst basketball of his career before tearing the same ligaments in January. His replacement at shooting guard is Charlie Bell (8.46 PER), whose defensive contributions tend to fly under the radar. The return of Ersan Ilyasova (15.53 PER) from Europe, a promising rookie season from Jennings and a clean bill of health for Bogut mean that the Bucks are much better prepared for life without Redd than they were last year.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (26-21 SU, 28-19 ATS)

Key players: Kevin Durant (25.31 PER), Russell Westbrook (16.18 PER)
Injuries: Etan Thomas (flu, day-to-day)

The Thunder might be fourth on this list, but they’re the No. 1 handicapping story of the first half. They sowed the seeds for this bumper ATS crop when Clay Bennett bought the Seattle SuperSonics in 2006. The Sonics finished last in the Northwest Division the next two years and drafted Durant and Westbrook, moved to Oklahoma City, then finished last again in 2008-09 and grabbed James Harden (14.49 PER). Full marks to GM Sam Presti for taking full advantage of his draft position. Durant is easily the best player on any of these five teams and is very likely to get better over the second half of the season, along with the rest of the young guns.

5. Charlotte Bobcats (24-23 SU, 28-19 ATS)

Key players: Gerald Wallace (19.28 PER), Stephen Jackson (15.93 PER)
Injuries: Tyson Chandler (foot, day-to-day)

The Bobcats get no respect. The team is for sale, coach Larry Brown had his reputation sullied somewhat during his tenure with the New York Knicks, and Michael Jordan the executive is not on the same level as Michael Jordan the player. But Charlotte went 46-36 ATS last year after Brown took over. Speaking of disrespect, Wallace was left unprotected by Sacramento during the 2004 expansion draft, and Jackson fell out of favor with management in Golden State. Their loss is Charlotte’s gain. However, the imminent return of Chandler (9.70 PER) could be more of a hindrance than a help, depending on the condition of his left foot. Nazr Mohammed (21.46 PER) has played shockingly well at center in relief of Chandler. Monitor this situation closely for signs of either player’s decline.

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