The appearance of both the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV (Sunday, February 7, 6:25 PM ET) has put to bed the old-school assumptions that were the foundation of any solid pro NFL betting strategy over the past four decades.

For years, handicappers and mainstream analysts alike told us the basis of any good football team lied in an ability to run the ball and stop the run.

Looking at the Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) and Saints (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) and their status as the NFL’s two top teams this season, it’s safe to say times have changed in professional football.

The shift towards pass-dominant offenses leading the league in wins began with the St. Louis Rams and the Greatest Show on Turf a little over a decade ago. But it’s been the emergence of the Colts as the league’s best team that’s truly cemented the revolution.

When Indianapolis won Super Bowl XLI over the Chicago Bears three years ago, it became the first team ranked outside the top 10 in scoring defense to go all the way.

Thing is, it wasn’t even close. The Colts won the Super Bowl after allowing 22.5 points per game (23rd) in 2006, and were only 21st in total defense and dead last against the run.

Over the past two seasons, it was offense against defense in the Super Bowl, with the New York Giants stunning the New England Patriots before the Pittsburgh Steelers held off the Arizona Cardinals. Defense carried the day – and took home the cash – on both occasions.

This year, it’ll be offense against offense when Indy clashes with New Orleans at Sun Life Stadium in Miami. It hardly matters that the Saints ranked 25th in total defense (357.8 YPG) this season and that the Colts were last in rushing (80.9 YPG). The team that covers could very well be the one that scores last.

Oddsmakers like Indy against the NFL point spread heading into the second week of betting. The Colts opened as 5-point favorites late on Sunday night, but they’d been bet up to -5.5 by the middle of the week.

A ton of money came in on the AFC champions after the line was released, but support for Indianapolis is leveling off. Through Thursday afternoon, only 54% of wagers on the spread had come in on the Colts, down from the 65% number from earlier in the week.


The total is on the board at 56.5, up from the initial 55-point offering. It comes as no surprise that public bettors are siding with the over, given both teams rank in the top 10 in total, passing, and scoring offense.

If the number holds above 55, it would represent the highest total in Super Bowl history, which is only fitting given the shift towards the passing game over the last 10 years. Previously, the three highest totals for the big game were set at 55, 53.5, and 53 points, respectively.

The proliferation in points in recent years hasn’t made the over the sharp wager on the total, however. When the Steelers and Cardinals played over the 46.5-point number in last year’s Super Bowl, it was the first time the over cashed since 2003, when the Patriots and Carolina Panthers went over the 38-point total.

The under is 4-1 in the last five Super Bowls, including in Indy’s 29-17 win as 6.5-point chalk over Chicago in Miami in 2007. The Colts and Bears played under the 47-point total that day amid the rain and humidity.
The humid weather at South Beach could play a role again this time around. The footballs used for the Super Bowl are more heavily painted than the ones used during the regular season and playoffs, and are more slippery because of it.
Factor in the humidity, Drew Brees’ small hands, and Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl experience, and such a small thing could be the difference next Sunday.
Looking at the trends, the favored Colts will certainly need some help in covering the spread against the Saints. The underdog has cashed the last two Super Bowls since Indianapolis’ win three years ago, and is 6-2 against the number in the last eight championship games.

This information is provided in partnership with BetUs Sportsbook

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