After all of the talk surrounding Brett Favre Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson, a special team guy decided the outcome of the NFC Championship Game. Garrett Hartley kicked a 40 yard winning field goal in overtime to seal the victory for the New Orleans Saints.

Special teams will play a huge role when it comes to Super Bowl 44 betting because both the Colts and Saints appear to be equal on both sides of the ball. So, the outcome of the game could very well be decided by a special teams play.

Here is a look at which team has the edge in special teams and how significant that edge is in terms of making a Super Bowl 44 betting decision.

Super Bowl: Special Teams

New Orleans Saints: Special Teams

The New Orleans Saints special teams group is highlighted by the punt return ability of Reggie Bush. Bush can break one at anytime and put 6 points on the board. He could also muff a punt and turn the ball over to the opposing team like he did in the NFC Championship Game.

Bush is also quite inconsistent, and that seems to come back to his mental focus. Take away his 83 yard return against the Cardinals that went for a TD, and he’s only averaging 8.6 yards per punt return in the post-season.

Bush is a double-edged sword as a punt returner. When he concentrates, he’s as good as any returner in the NFL. But as we saw in the Divisional Championship game, he can put the Saints into a serious hole. A more solid guy on special teams for the Saints is their kick-returner, Courtney Roby. Roby is an exceptional kick-returner who, given a seam, can take it to the house like Bush. Unlike Bush, Roby’s hands are rock solid. Roby also averages 27.5 yards per kick-off, so the proof is in the pudding.

Roby can give the Saints great field position on offense, but what happens if Brees and the “O” can’t move the ball? The Saints turn to one of the better punters in the league in Thomas Morestead. Morestead averages 43.6 yards a kick but can boot it up to 58 yards depending on where the Saints want to place it. He’s fairly accurate as well.

The other kicker, the aforementioned Hartley, has hit 9 out of 11 attempts this season. Despite not being used all that much, he consistently boots it from 50 to 55 during warm-ups. Kicking the game winner against the Vikings was huge for his confidence. Hartley’s lack of experience should not be an issue for the Saints in the Super Bowl.

The Saints’ biggest issue on special teams is their kick coverage. It’s a weakness that head coach Sean Payton hasn’t figured out how to deal with yet.


Indianapolis Colts: Special Teams

The Colts kick-returner, Chad Simpson, has the moves and speed to be a bigger version of Reggie Bush. Simpson is built to be a running back in this league. He’s 5’ 9” and weighs 216 lbs. As a kick-returner, the man took it to the house versus the Jacksonville Jaguars during the regular season and averages a solid 24.3 yards per return. He could have success against the Saints’ coverage teams.

So could punt returner T.J. Rushing. Even though Rushing hasn’t returned one yet this season, don’t be surprised if Rushing gets a shot, he finds nice seam up the middle and takes a punt into the end zone. Rushing is averaging only 6.6 yards per punt return in the post season but that’s because the Colts have played against good special teams coverage units.
The Colts’ kicker, Matt Stover, is a veteran who will be expected to make kicks in the Super Bowl. His range may not be as good as Hartley’s but he’s terrifically accurate. Stover came in to replace one of the most clutch kickers in Super Bowl history, Adam Vinateri, who is coming off of an injury. Stover has hit all 5 of his field goals in the post-season with a long of 44.
Stover’s fellow kicker, punter Pat McAfee, averages 44.3 yards per punt and can boot up to 60 yards. Like Morestead, he’s one of the more accurate guys in the league. Once McAfee punts it, the Colts’ coverage team does a terrific job at keeping the opposing team’s returner from getting too far down the field. Same goes with the Colts’ kick-off coverage teams.
The Colts are solid at giving both their offense a short field to work with and keeping the opposing offense from getting a short field to work with. That could be huge in the Super Bowl.
Edge: Indianapolis Colts
Significant Enough of an Edge to Warrant a Bet? Yes. I’ll be wagering on the Saints because there are other factors that I’m considering in this game, but I have to admit that the Colts definitely have the edge on special teams.
As good as Reggie Bush is, he is prone to make mistakes and with all the pressure of the Super Bowl, it could just compound its self.
The Colts have been here before and are as well coached on special teams as they are in every other phase of the game. Their coaches will look to exploit the Saints’ weaknesses on special teams.
If coach Sean Payton isn’t aware of it and doesn’t get on his assistants to tighten the screws with the special teams unit, the Saints might pay for it. Wouldn’t it be something if, in a tied game, Chad Simpson took a Morestead punt the distance to blow out the 5 ½ football point spread? It could happen.
We’re getting closer and closer to the Super Bowl!

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